Will Facebook succeed where Gmail did not?

My interest is this: Gmail tried to move into social media with Google Buzz, and, more closely related, tried to integrate seamless email and social email threads through Google Wave. (By the way, I've read more than one article on this Facebook vs. Gmail issue that stated that Google pulled the plug on either Wave or Buzz - neither is true.) Buzz was put on hold for a short while due to some legal issues, but services are, in fact, up and running. Both Wave and Buzz just haven't taken off as fast as Google had hoped. So will Facebook manage to provide users with a complete, integrated communication system?

In the past week I've read articles singing the praises of the arrival of the online message messaiah, to those declaring it completely lacking in innovation - and quite a few in between.

First things first - let's look at what Facebook is offering:

Prioritisation

Facebook has proven its worth when it comes to managing social communication, both one-on-one and across a selective network, as well as prioritising certain events over others (just take a look at how effective your news feed is - and how easily you can adjust your news preference). Most of us already have a large network of social contacts in our Facebook accounts.

Take Facebook's inherent knowledge of our social communications, turn it into an email system, and we have in our hands a wonderfully prioritised messaging system. Of course, Gmail already set the ball rolling on this with their 'Priority Inbox', however I don't think this tool is as intuitive (or, probably, accurate) as what Facebook's will be. That being said, with email you do still have the ability to choose your rankings yourself or mark messages for follow up.

It will be interesting to see how quickly Facebook adjusts its prioritisation - what if I want the guy I like to rank higher than my mother? (Just because I only met him last weekend, he's only messaged me once before and we're still "complicated"- as I believe Facebook puts it - I'd still rather reply to him than answer my mother on whether I'll be home for dinner.)

Facebook email addresses

According to some, the @facebook.com email address is also a great drawing card. It enables you to use your vanity URL (if you have one) as your email address; for most of us that means yourname@facebook.com. Pretty easy.

The one drawback I can see to this is professionalism. Facebook to me, has social connotations - not necessarily something that I want my professional contacts involved in. I definitely don't want my online tax certificate popping up in my Facebook email. My next question is what this will mean for work email? I very much doubt that businesses (many of which still block Facebook from their servers) will adopt the idea of communicating business through Facebook and having employees reading their social emails on work time. Meaning Facebook won't be an email killer - and brings us right back to it being the Gmail killer.

Integrating chat and email

What I gather from watching the video announcing the new messaging system, Facebook's new tool is basically an integration of chat and email. Facebook's new messaging system will automatically sort all communications between you and one of your contacts into one thread. Chat and email will be combined in these threads. Chats that are not received by the recipient will automatically be sent to their inbox - exactly as with Gchat.

The difference is that this functionality will be available to you when you chat or email anyone with an XMPP-enabled address from your @facebook.com address. This means across email clients like Gmail, Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, etc. I suspect it's only a matter of time before Gmail extends their Gchat feature with the same ability.

Organising conversations

It also promises a better organisation of group conversations, by integrating the "like" function into messaging and through sorting conversations by name rather than subject line. The organisation of these threads sounds very similar to Google Wave, but without the added project management abilities. (Incidentally, very little has been said about integrating attachments and video into these Facebook messages. I can only assume that, as Facebook is declaring their message system a replacement for an outdated email system, that these functionalities will be integrated in some way.)

One of the greatest potentials of this new Facebook messaging system, is that it gives Facebook users in developing countries, an email address. These users more than likely don't have regular access to PCs, and so sign up to and access Facebook via mobiles (mobile having a very high penetration rate in developing countries).

For such users, this @facebook.com address will be their very first email address. This, at least, is the speculation, and it's a fantastic ideal, but speaking from a South African perspective I have to say, I wonder how many people who purely use mobile actually use Facebook? Just a thought - I can't find any research on the matter.

So - what are the options?

Facebook hasn't exactly rolled out any features that can't be quite easily adopted by ESPs like Gmail or Hotmail. They do, however, have the convenience of their existing 500 million users and accounts. Integrating everything into one account is mighty convenient for users. (That being said, the cautionary expression "don't put all your eggs in one basket" does come to mind...). But with 500 million users potentially activating Facebook email accounts, it's something to keep an eye on.

I'm not making any judgement calls until I can try the product and see the widespread affect. We can't really predict these things, can we? Who thought Twitter would turn out to be more of a search engine than a social network? Just a few short months ago Gmail's 'Priority Inbox' was going to kill email marketing (we're still going strong, in case you hadn't noticed) - and now Facebook is killing email?

My bottom line?

I love the Facebook video explaining their messaging system, and I get it. I really do. It's great - for my social network. But when I log into my email I'm not looking for my social messages anymore (although the Facebook notifications are always opened!). I like to separate my communications! I like knowing that my social conversations, jokes and ramblings happen in my Facebook account, while I can check any other communication (from my bank, travel agents, blog updates and yes, email marketing emails) in my email account. I don't want these official communications intermingled with my social communication.

While I understand that Facebook will give certain social contacts priority over others (my mom over my alma mater); I don't like the idea that my bank doesn't receive priority in my inbox. Or am I just being difficult?

Will it kill email?

I think it's a fun tool to play with, but I doubt it will overtake email anytime soon. To truly integrate all our past email communication into a social medium will take time.

As far as what it means for email and email marketing - it's just another challenge. Every new development brings about challenges to competitors, and I'm waiting to see how this one will pan out. If Facebook is planning on killing Gmail, I think we'll have to wait quite some time to see it happen. In the mean time, I'm sure there'll be some interesting observations for the rest of us along the way. (And yes, I am rather attached to my Gmail account. But I might get a Facebook one too...)